Simon forecast to strike Mexico as Category 4 hurricane
Tropical Storm Simon is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane before reaching Mexico’s Pacific coast, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Hurricane warnings have been issued for parts of the coast, where life-threatening winds and storm surge are expected.
At 3 p.m. CST on Thursday, Simon had maximum sustained winds of 70 miles per hour and was about 230 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was moving west at 6 miles per hour, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 70 miles from its center.
Simon is expected to become a hurricane Thursday night, turn northwestward by early Friday and then move northward Friday night. Its core is forecast to reach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico Saturday afternoon or Saturday night.
The NHC forecasts winds reaching 130 miles per hour by early Saturday, making Simon a Category 4 hurricane before it comes ashore.
The storm has a compact inner core, with signs of an eye becoming apparent in satellite imagery. Low wind shear, abundant moisture and very warm water favor rapid strengthening. A forecast model cited by the NHC puts the chance of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours at more than 70 percent.
Forecasters said models still differ on exactly where and when Simon will turn toward the coast, with the best-performing models this year placing it east of the official forecast.
Mexico’s government issued a hurricane warning from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, covering coastal portions of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
A hurricane watch extends west of Playa Perula to Punta Mita, covering parts of Jalisco and Nayarit, while a tropical storm watch covers the Michoacan coast east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area Saturday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm conditions beginning Saturday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by Saturday night, while tropical storm conditions could begin in the tropical storm watch area Friday.
“Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by late Friday,” the NHC said. Additional watches or warnings could be issued Thursday night or Friday.
Simon is expected to bring 8 to 15 inches of rain to parts of southwestern Mexico through Sunday. Isolated totals of 15 to 25 inches are possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, creating a risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain.
Dangerous storm surge is possible along the immediate coast near and east of where the center makes landfall. Large, destructive waves will accompany the surge.
Swells will affect the southwestern and west-central Mexican coast through the weekend, with life-threatening surf and rip currents likely.
