US holiday sales projected to top $1 trillion for first time
- NRF forecasts US holiday sales will top $1 trillion for the first time, a 4.2 percent increase year over year.
- Higher fuel and diesel prices pose a headwind for discretionary spending, especially among low income households.
- NRF chief economist Mark Mathews calls the labor market resilient and says households will prioritize spending on families and loved ones.
- Retailers plan to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, similar to last year but smaller than hiring in the more distant past.
- NRF sales estimate covers Nov 1 to Dec 31 and excludes auto dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
US consumers will spend more than $1 trillion this holiday season, gifting generously despite persistent inflation, according to a forecast released Thursday.
The National Retail Federation estimated 4.2 percent growth in spending to just over $1 trillion, topping last year’s rise of 3.1 percent to $972 billion.
Officials with the trade group flagged higher fuel prices as a headwind for discretionary purchases, particularly among low-income households.
But NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews described the labor market as “resilient.”
Consumer confidence readings have been weak, but the benchmark has not proven a reliable predictor of sales, he said.
“We do expect households to continue to prioritize spending on families, friends and loved ones,” Mathews told reporters. “We’ve seen that throughout the course of the year.”
The NRF projects that retailers will hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal employees this year, comparable to last year’s 356,000.
But Mathews characterized this staffing addition as smaller than those “in the more distant past.”
He also said retailers were unlikely to pass on all of the increased costs from shipping due to soaring diesel prices.
“I think it’s really hard for any retailer to go out there and to have higher prices than anybody else,” he said. “So as we saw with tariffs, this is an industry that survives on providing lower prices to consumers and potentially eating some of those costs.”
The NRF’s figures cover sales between November 1 and December 31 and excludes sales at automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
